In this episode of The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the question on every investor’s mind: How did the S&P 500 claw its way back to all-time highs so quickly? With ceasefire talks holding and a diplomatic path forward emerging around the Strait of Hormuz, markets are doing what they’ve always done: looking ahead.
Ryan puts the recent whipsaw in historical context, highlighting that the S&P 500’s 9.8% gain over just 10 trading days ranks in the 99.7th percentile of all such windows in history. He draws direct parallels to post-Liberation Day, COVID, early 2019, and the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, all periods where explosive 10-day strength preceded sustained bull runs. His message: The market is smarter than any of us, and right now it’s telling us the lows are in.
Sonu breaks down the profit engine powering this rally, pointing to nominal GDP growth running at 5% to 6%, healthy sales growth for corporate America, and margin expansion that quietly benefits from the same inflation that frustrates consumers. He also flags that companies are beginning to receive tariff refunds, a near-term boost to profit margins, while the Fed appears content to hold rates steady even as inflation ticks up, creating a quietly dovish backdrop for equities.
The pair close with a reminder that volatility is simply the toll investors pay for long-term returns, and that 25%, 24%, and 18% annual gains in each of the last three years all came with their own scary headlines along the way. This bull market, they argue, is alive and well.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500’s 10-day surge of 9.8% ranks in the 99.7th percentile historically, a level of strength that has consistently preceded strong future returns.
- Ceasefire talks are holding around the Strait of Hormuz, and markets are beginning to price in a diplomatic resolution even if a formal deal remains weeks or months away.
- Nominal GDP growth running at 5% to 6% is providing a strong revenue tailwind for corporate America, separate from the inflation-adjusted figures that grab headlines.
- Inflation, while painful for consumers, translates directly into margin expansion for companies, a dynamic quietly fueling the profit cycle higher.
- Companies are starting to receive tariff refunds, providing a near-term lift to profit margins that could persist through the summer.
- The Fed holding rates steady even as inflation picks up is a dovish signal that remains a positive backdrop for equities.
- Every major bull market of the past three years—25%, 24%, 18%—came packaged with volatility and fear. That pattern appears to be repeating, not breaking.
Jump to:
0:00 – Welcome and Why Stocks Are Back at Highs
0:56 – Ceasefire Talks and the Diplomatic Path Forward
1:48 – Geopolitical History and How Markets Bottom
3:24 – Nominal GDP and the Profit Expansion Story
5:27 – Dual Tailwinds and Corporate Profit Records
6:06 – The 99.7th Percentile Rally in Context
7:06 – Momentum, Tariff Refunds, and the Dovish Fed
8:33 – Closing Thoughts and the Bull Market Outlook
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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